The views expressed herein are solely those of the writer. The writer of the article has asked to remain anonymous.
This article is about using historical election data from 1994 to predict the much-anticipated election in SVG which is due in the next couple of months. I will also add some external facts that will impact the outcome of the election and give my personal opinion. I am going to mainly look at eight (8) out of nine (9) constituencies that the government holds.
The current ULP government only needs to defend its 8 seats, and it will regain power again. Some might not agree with my assessment, but I think it is less than 5 percent chance any of the opposition seats will flip. Anything can happen in an election, but it is highly improbable.
North Central Windward for the ULP is an automatic win for the government this why I am not even doing an analysis.
This seat was won by the ruling ULP by a margin of 62 votes. The total votes cast from the previous election only saw an increase of 162 votes. I am predicting that total votes will increase by 344 votes this election cycle. Important to note the largest community is a stronghold of the ULP and if 50 percent or above of the new voters come from that community it will be tough to overcome.
According to the data from previous elections since 1994 the five times a seat was within 110 votes the next election the seat changed to the next party. (1998 North Windward, 1998 South Central Windward, 2005 Central Kingstown, 2005 and 2015 North Leeward) NDP is hoping this trend continues in 2025. The ULP vote fell by 44 votes and the NDP increased by 217. This meant the NDP flipped the 44 from ULP and got the 162 new voters (206) Despite getting 100 percent of the new voters the candidate still lost.
This constituency was the main one ravaged by the volcanic eruption of April 2021. Below is a breakdown of the total funds which was at the government’s disposal
• IMF Emergency Disbursement: US$11.6 million under the Rapid Credit Facility.
• United Nations Global Appeal: Targeted US$29.2 million for humanitarian and recovery needs.
• World Bank Immediate Funding: US$20 million via contingency credit line for initial response to the eruption.
• World Bank Recovery Project: US$40 million for the Volcanic Eruption Emergency Project to restore critical infrastructure, with another US$50 million in additional budget support.
The ULP government due to this disaster had to spend a significant amount to rebuild homes and infrastructure in this constituency.
Verdict:
Using data from previous elections since 1994 shows that once a seat is less than 110 votes the seat flips to the next party which suggest the seat is leaning NDP from using pure statistics.
Historical data predicts NDP to win the seat.
My instincts though feel ULP will narrowly hold on to this seat between 50 to 15 votes.
Due to heavy government spending in this constituency do not be surprised ULP buck previous elections trend when seats are less than 110 and narrowly hold on to this seat
Last election this seat was sensationally won by the ULP by a mere 1 vote. They had 39 rejected votes which could have swing this seat either way. Total votes had only increase by 43. I predict 253 new voters this year. This constituency was also affected by the volcanic eruption and would have benefited from the substantial funds that were available, this is going to be one of the standout showdowns on election night. Since 1994 once a seat is 110 votes and below each time the next time elections were called the seat change to the next party. NDP is hoping this historical trend continues.
Verdict
Data: Historically the two times this happened in this seat since 1994 when the votes were separated by 110 or less it swings to the next party in the next election. (2005 and 2015). Will it also happen in 2025? Spooky! The three other times this occurred nationwide since 1994 when the votes were separated by 110 votes the seat switched to the next party. (1998 North Windward, 1998 South Central Windward, 2005 Central Kingstown) Meaning if this trend continues NDP will recapture this seat according to past data trends.
My instincts feel this seat will switch and follow the historical precedent. Lightning will not strike twice, and I predict due to previous data trends is the one most likely to change.
I predict NDP win seat by 30 votes.
ULP won this seat last election by 219 votes. The total votes cast fell from the previous election cycle by 201 votes. I predict the total new votes this year will be around 155. The ULP vote fell by 363 votes and still won by 201 votes. NDP increased their vote in 2020 by 177 who switched their political allegiance from 2015 data. 186 ULP supporters chose not to exercise their right to vote. I will caution the ULP supporters about this approach because NDP supporters will be out in their numbers.
Verdict
Data shows the ULP still have a significant advantage in this seat. If only 90 of those voters decide to show up this election and you add 201 voters. They can go in this election cycle easily with a lead of 300 votes.
Data and my instincts think ULP will win this seat by 50 to 75 votes.
The ULP candidate won the constituency by 233 votes. Total votes increased by 74 votes.
I predict the total votes would increase this election cycle by 125 votes. The ULP candidate’s support fell by 137 votes, and you add the 74 new votes to the 2015 total. You get a total of 2098 votes which is just two (2) votes shy of the overall count for the NDP candidate. Now the significance of this is that the NDP got all the new voters, and 137 voters flipped their support from the ULP.
Verdict
Data showed that the support fell in this seat but to expect this election cycle a candidate to get 100 percent of the swing vote and new voters again is 99 percent unlikely. Despite this, the NDP candidate still lost. The challenges that the country faced over the last five years a parliamentarian had to assist many constituents. Despite it being a very close race the difference is going to be the bounce from the implementation of these programs and the 213 votes lead they had going into this election cycle. ULP holds on to the seat.
My instincts think ULP wins this seat by around 60 votes.
ULP won this seat in 2020 by 196 votes. Total votes decreased by 136 votes when comparing 2015 and 2020 figures. I predict the new voters will increase by 314 this cycle. NDP support increased by 126 while ULP support fell by 289. This shows 163 ULP voters from 2015 did not vote. As the Minister of Finance, he would have access to make his constituents benefit from the many different significant programs the government had implemented over the last 5 years.
Verdict
Data shows that the NDP support is growing. This seat is prone to large increases in new voters which normally means it is a great sign for the opposition and opens the possibility of the seat switching. ULP won by 196 and 163 ULP supporters did not vote meaning their potential overall lead is around 359 votes. Over the previous election cycles despite large increases in new voters the ULP have always manage to a get good share of these new voters nullifying the possibility of the seat swinging to the NDP. Data is showing ULP will retain this seat.
My instincts believe that ULP will retain this seat by less than 70.
ULP won this seat last election by 360 votes. The total votes increased from the previous election cycle by 30 votes. I predict the total new votes this year will be around 240.
The ULP vote fell by 76 votes and still won by 360 votes. NDP increased its vote in 2020 by 142.
Verdict
Data shows that ULP will retain this seat because they have a sizeable advantage.
My instincts predict ULP will retain this seat by 150 votes.
The ULP candidate won the constituency by 353 votes. Total votes decreased by five (5) votes. I predict the total votes would increase this election cycle by 270 votes. The ULP candidate’s support fell by 202. NDP candidate votes increased by 201. Now the significance of this is NDP flip 201 voters from ULP. Despite this ULP won by over 350 votes.
Verdict
Data shows ULP will retain this seat because they hold a significant advantage.
My instinct predicts ULP will retain seat by 165 votes.
The ULP candidate won the constituency by 353 votes. Total votes decreased by 5 votes. I predict the total votes would increase this election cycle by 270 votes. The ULP candidate’s support fell by 202. NDP candidate votes increased by 201. Now the significance of this is NDP flip 201 voters from ULP. Despite this ULP won by over 350 votes.
Verdict
Data shows ULP will retain this seat because they hold a significant advantage.
My instinct predicts ULP will retain seat by 165 votes.
NDP 8 and ULP 7.
According to the data from previous elections the five times a seat was within 110 votes the next election the seat changed to the next party. (1998 North Windward, 1998 South Central Windward, 2005 Central Kingstown, 2005 and 2015 North Leeward).
In the general election, two seats North Windward and North Leeward fall into this category which means if this historical data trend continues since 1994 it means the NDP will form the government. NDP is hoping this trend continues in 2025.
ULP 8 and NDP 7.
The problem with using data only it does not account for additional contributing factors.
The last five years have seen three major events that affected the economy and it citizens.
Covid 2020, April 2021 volcanic eruption and Hurricane Beryl. The government had to roll out extensive financial support programs. They had to be very involved the last five years with their constituents because of all the different tragedies.
This is why I believe the North Windward seat will buck the historical data trend and ULP will retain it. The North Leeward seat will switch back to the NDP, but the ULP will form government for the 6th time. I predict ULP will win around four (4) seats with fewer than 90 votes. They will lose the popular vote again by around 800 votes. Total votes 33,150 and ULP 32, 350. I predict that ultimately the work they did over the last five years with the social programs will be the catalyst to their victory.
I ask for restraint on the night of the election should the election results not go the way many might want them to go. They have international and regional observers who would be overseeing these elections. Once they declare the elections free and fair respect the results. Please do not resort to violence. Cause we are in a very nerve-wracking and nail-biting election. I am predicting a night where most Vincentians will not get their wish as the party they voted for to win power will lose. The failed 2009 referendum will come back again like a ghost to haunt the NDP.
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