Poll shows tight race between NDP and ULP

By Admin. Updated 6:09 p.m., Wednesday, November 5, 2025, Atlantic Standard Time (GMT-4). 

A poll released today (November 5) shows that the 2025 general election race in St. Vincent and the Grenadines is a tight one with a narrow lead for the opposition and a considerable percentage of undecided voters.

The poll by Geostrategy on the forthcoming general election in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, was conducted in the ten days leading up to the 5^th of November 2025.

“This poll shows a narrow NDP lead and through a survey of 800 voters provides detailed insights into voter sentiment, party preferences, and the key issues ahead of the November 27 vote,” the organization said.

You can find their poll below, verbatim:

Our poll shows the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) narrowly leading the ruling Unity Labour Party (ULP) 40% to 38%, with a significant 22% still undecided.

The numbers hint that the ULP’s two-decade rule under Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves could face its toughest test yet, but with more than one in five voters saying they are undecided, the race remains perilously tight.

The 15 single-member constituencies tell a similar story of the race being a close one. With a few weeks to go the poll is showing the NDP with a seat lead of 9 – 6.

Several battlegrounds jump into focus:

• Southern Grenadines — an area traditionally favorable to the NDP — is showing further movement toward the NDP.
• East and Central Kingstown — urban seats where cost of living concerns ranks highest also currently lean towards the NDP.
• South Leeward and North Leeward — South Leeward — which the NDP narrowly held in 2020 — appears competitive once again, with the latest polling showing the opposition maintaining a slight edge. North Leeward, meanwhile, remains a knife-edge constituency after a close ULP win in the last election.
• North Central Windward, long a ULP stronghold and the Prime Minister Gonsalves’ home seat since 1994 looks safe for the ULP.

Economic Pressures Dominate Voter Concerns

Cost of living is the decisive issue for 44% of voters, far outstripping unemployment (18%) and crime (16%). The dominance of pocketbook worries underscores the prevailing campaign narrative: for many Vincentians, wages have not kept up with prices since the pandemic and the La Soufriere eruption recovery.

The NDP has seized on that with promises of consumer relief and youth job programs, while the ULP argues that only continuity can safeguard the country’s recent investments and rebuilding efforts.

Leadership Ratings: Both Candidates Under Scrutiny

Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, 78, has dominated Vincentian politics for more than two decades, leading the ULP since 1994 and serving as prime minister since 2001 — the longest continuous tenure in the nation’s history. His legacy is anchored in high-profile infrastructure such as the Argyle International Airport and his stewardship through crises from the global pandemic to the 2021 La Soufriere eruption. Yet longevity cuts both ways as the new poll the shows public patience thinning with the aging leader, with just 32% approving of his job performance against 42% disapproval and 26% undecided.

His challenger, Dr. Godwin Friday, 66 represents a contrast in both style and political era. A longstanding MP for the Northern Grenadines and leader of the NDP since November 2016, Friday has built his brand around economic relief, governance reform, and youth opportunity. Though less universally known than Gonsalves, the poll gives him a modest edge with 37% approval of his performance and 40% disapproval, and 23% remain unsure.

Turnout: The Decider in a Dead-Heat Race

With the parties separated by only two percentage points, turnout is emerging as the critical swing variable. The latest poll finds just 62% of voters are certain they will vote, while 20% are unsure and 18% say they intend to stay home.

In a country of only 100,000 people and 15 constituencies, victory margins can be down to no more than double-digit votes. The ULP’s seasoned ground machine — bolstered by deeply rooted community networks — has historically excelled at mobilising supporters, especially older and rural voters who tend to favor the Government. The NDP, by contrast, is counting on younger, economically frustrated voters who strongly prefer change but display the lowest voting commitment in our poll. If they turn online activism into real votes, the opposition’s narrow poll advantage will solidify into seats; if not, the ULP’s legacy advantages will be enough to claim an unprecedented sixth consecutive victory.

Visit Geostrategy here.

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