Guyana’s Oil Boom Lifts Caribbean Growth Outlook for 2026

This image was obtained from Global Economic Prospects – June 2025.

By Val Matthias. Updated 12:57 p.m., Saturday, January 3, 2025, Atlantic Standard Time (GMT-4).

Caribbean economies are entering 2026 with growth prospects shaped by Guyana’s continued oil and gas expansion. The World Bank projects Guyana’s economy to surge by 23 percent, a pace that places it far ahead of regional peers and raises the Caribbean’s overall growth forecast to 5.8 percent. Without Guyana, the regional average moderates to 3.1 percent, underscoring the outsized role of the country’s energy sector.

Several states are positioned for steady expansion. Dominica and Grenada are each forecast to grow by 3.4 percent, while Suriname (3.3 percent) and Trinidad and Tobago (3.2 percent) follow closely. St. Vincent and the Grenadines, at 2.9 percent, rounds out the upper tier of performers.

Tourism‑anchored economies are expected to maintain momentum, though at lower rates. Belize is projected at 2.4 percent, St. Lucia at 2.3 percent, and Barbados at 2.0 percent. Jamaica’s growth forecast of 1.7 percent and The Bahamas at 1.2 percent reflect softer prospects in the sector. Haiti’s projection of 2.0 percent remains subject to uncertainty given ongoing domestic challenges.

The data highlights a region holding its ground, with Guyana’s trajectory reshaping the aggregate picture and smaller economies sustaining moderate but stable growth paths.

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The information was sourced from Global Economic Prospects – June 2025.