From the Strait of Hormuz to Our Pockets: The True Cost of Global Conflict

The views expressed herein are solely those of the writer.

By: Augustine Ferdinand, B.Sc. in Political Science , M.Sc. in Labour and Employment Relations, Director of the Institute of Governance and Policy of Latin America and the Caribbean.


“So much trouble in the world… everywhere is war.”- Bob Marley

When Bob Marley sang those lyrics decades ago, he was capturing a global truth that we are witnessing today. As missiles cross the skies over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz remains a volatile choke point, the rumours of war have crossed the Atlantic. They haven’t arrived as ballistic threats, but as skyrocketing digits at the gas pump. For our working class, the conflict between Iran and the West isn’t a geopolitical chess match played on a distant board; it is a direct assault on their pockets.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines is a nation of price takers. We do not set the cost of the world’s oil, but when global benchmarks surge, our fuel surcharge at VINLEC follows with an unforgiving, mechanical precision. This war is an economic predator. It stalks the small and medium size business profit whose margins are already razor thin; it haunts the fisherman in Barrouallie watching his boat engine consume more dollars than his catch can provide. It is the grim reality of a more expensive bag of flour, a costlier bottle of cooking oil, and a Supply Chain Squeeze that makes a sheet of galvanized steel or a sack of cement a luxury for those trying to build a home.

This Tuesday, Prime Minister Dr. Godwin Friday held a press conference to brace the nation for impact. He warned of a severe energy and fuel shock over the next 12 months, noting that while we cannot control the global fire, we can control our response. I wholeheartedly agree with the sentiment. However, the Prime Minister’s address fell short of the “how.” Acknowledging the wound is not the same as applying the bandage. We do not need to reinvent the wheel; we have a recent blueprint of intervention from the previous administration that shielded the vulnerable during the COVID-19 and Ukraine crises. Afterall, the Former Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves often argues that “a small island cannot simply wait for the market to fix itself. By using the Treasury to absorb the blow of global shocks to maintain social stability during market volatility.”

To truly protect the Vincentian people, the government must consider expanding on domestic cushions as was done in the past under the previous government such as ; (1)Supplemental income for the vulnerable and production support for farmers and fishers; (2)  Expansion of  VAT relief beyond  first 250 units of electricity  or the government must now “put its money where its mouth is” and deliver the fuel surcharge cap promised while in opposition; (3) Direct subsidies at the pump and on imported flour to prevent transportation fares and basic food prices from spiralling including barrel concessions ;(4) Expanding the list of zero-rated VAT items and fulfilling the pledge to reduce VAT from 16% to 13%  and  (5) Increasing public sector wages and reducing income tax to offset the rising cost of living.

Still, the government cannot carry this burden alone. Our financial institutions and credit agencies must step up, offering attractive interest rates for small businesses to pivot toward solar-powered irrigation, water tanks to increase for water security and modernized fishing equipment. However, the ultimate shield is local. As former Minister Caesar once said, “A nation that can feed itself is a safe place to live.” True sovereignty is not found in a flag or an anthem; it is found in the ability to nourish your citizens when the world goes mad.

We cannot stop the war in the Middle East, nor can we manually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But we can decide what grows in the rich soil of the leeward and countryside. We must embrace backyard gardening, the local co-operatives, and the expansion of cold storage for our fishers. We also respond by replacing or reducing high cost imported meats with local poultry and pooling resources to reduce transportation cost on produce, thereby creating an economy that is resilient rather than reactive.

In this era of global volatility, our best defence is a local harvest. By blending aggressive government intervention with a renewed commitment to food security, we can use this opportunity to ensure that even when the world bleeds, our people remain fed and we work toward reducing our food import by 25% by 2030.

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